Wildcard weekend looks to hold two things: some exciting football, and some very difficult capping. For one thing, you're dealing with three rematches from Week 17, in which you're faced with the matter of extracting real data from illusion. Were these division winners holding back? Were they playing it safe? Or did we just see some major holes and some upsets in the making?
In a tough weekend of football to cap, one of the eight plays (of the four sides and four totals) appears to hold some great value: Over 43 in Patriots/Ravens.
This low number is all about illusion. Pats/Ravens, a January game in Foxboro... going to be all about defense, right? A slugfest between perennial contenders and two of the better D's of the past decade? Wrong. Neither of these defenses is what they were even a year ago. The Ravens are dealing with injuries in their defensive backfield, not to mention age. And the Patriots are dealing with youth and inexperience in theirs. Every at least mediocre quarterback in the NFL has carved them up this year The Pats also have injury concerns with Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren, the heart of their defensive line.
And still more illusion: The Pats won't move the chains without Wes Welker. Wrong again. In some ways, losing Welker could even help the Pats. Great as Welker was this season, Brady would fall in love with him, and a once unpredictable offense turned into the Brady-to-Welker show. The Pats are now forced to spread the ball around again, like some earlier Pats teams who had great success. The Ravens have no film on how the Pats will move the ball this weekend, because nobody does! It's likely the Ravens will double-cover Moss and force the Pats to show they can still use the underneath game to beat them. Even without Welker, Brady has an array of weapons to choose from, including Wes-Welker-clone Julian Edelman. He may be inexperienced, but he's already impressed teammates with his quickness and moves, causing them to dub him Welker's "Mini-Me."
What about the winter conditions in Foxboro? All you need to do is look at the 59 points the Pats dropped on the Titans in the snow earlier this season. Unless there are 40-mph wind gusts taking away these passing games (not in the forecast), weather will not be an issue. It's always overrated.
Oh, and did I mention the Ravens' three solid RBs now that Willis McGahee has shown he's still got it?
Even if one of these two talented offenses gets shut down to the tune of, say, 17 points, there's a terrific chance the other one will easily get up over 26.
The Pats/Ravens Over 43 is your play of the weekend.